https://vlad-duda.com/tags/kalshi/ Recent content in Kalshi on Vlad Duda — Pragmatist Hugo en-US Mon, 02 Feb 2026 00:00:00 -0500 https://vlad-duda.com/blog/where-the-money-goes-in-prediction-markets/ Mon, 02 Feb 2026 00:00:00 -0500 https://vlad-duda.com/blog/where-the-money-goes-in-prediction-markets/ <p><em>72 million Kalshi trades, 8 charts, 5 minutes.</em></p> <p><strong>Data window: June 2021 – November 2025.</strong> Every chart below covers this span; Q4 2025 is incomplete (collection ended November 25).</p> <p>Las Vegas Strip slot machines return about 93¢ on the dollar; some Kalshi longshots have returned as little as 43¢. That comparison opens <a href="https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure">Jon Becker&rsquo;s <em>The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets</em></a>, a study of 72.1 million trades covering $18.26 billion in volume. I wanted the short version: who puts money in, and who gets it back? Eight charts do most of the work.</p>